The Power of One

I live in Indiana, and a good portion of Indiana has become Colts country in the last several years – the last 13 years, to be precise, the time when Peyton Manning was drafted as the quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts.  As you may know by now, last Sunday a neck injury kept Manning out of his first game since being drafted in 1998.  A few weeks back, the Colts signed Kerry Collins out of retirement to hold the spot until Peyton was healthy enough to take the field again.

Game 1 of the Kerry Collins Experiment took place… and it was a disaster.  Now, a lot of people are saying that the 34-7 drubbing at the hands of the Texans was not because of the absence of one Man(ning), but that the defense did not play well enough to keep them in the game.  Well…. that’s not quite what I saw.

1. Collins’ final line: 16-31 for 197 yards and 1 TD.  Okay, that’s not terrible, and, actually, if the Colts had any kind of running game, that would be acceptable…. but they don’t.  On the other hand, when you are down 34-0 at halftime, you aren’t going to get your running game established anyway.  However, that puts Collins at a 51.6% completion percentage; a percentage that Manning hasn’t sniffed since December of 2009.  In fact, in all his seasons, Manning has only had a lower completion percentage 9 times.  Against the Texans?  Manning had a 53.6% in their second meeting last season, and that is the worst that he has played against Houston.  So, what does this establish?  Collins is no Manning – I don’t think anybody is arguing that… at least nobody with any sense of sanity.  Of course, you know what you don’t see in that line above: fumbles… 3 of them… 2 of which were lost.

2. Collins fumbles on consecutive snaps.  Now, the offensive line needs to do a better job protecting the QB; however, when the pressure comes, Collins needs to hang onto the ball.  He gets hit, fumbles, and gives the ball to the Texans on the 12 yard line.  The next possession, he misses the snap, fumbles, and give the ball to the Texans on the 18 yard line.  You can’t do that.  Maybe you will blame it on the fact that the Colts didn’t sign him until late in the preseason, but let’s remember, Kerry Collins is no spring chicken.  He has been in the league for 17 seasons.  He is playing for his 6th different team, and he has been a starting QB for most of that time.  He should be able to take a snap without giving the opponent the ball inside the Red Zone.

3. Final Score: 34-7.  Now, a lot of people are going to bang on the defense for allowing 34 points.  Is that fair?  Collins gives the Texans that ball inside the 20 on consecutive snaps.  The defense doesn’t get any time to rest on the sideline between these drives, and they are given a combined… combined… 30 yards to work with.  You cannot put your defense in that kind of position, especially not against a team that has a very capable QB in Schaub; one of, if not, the best WR in the league in Andre Johnson; and a capable running game, even without Adrian Foster.  So, there’s 14 points.  Oh, and the special teams gives up a 79 yard punt return for a TD right before the half.  There’s another 7.  Take away those 21 points, and you are looking at a 13-7 game.  Throw in a rare short field goal miss by Vinatieri, and you have a potential 13-10 loss instead.  Let’s not forget, the Texans didn’t score in the second half.  The defense gave up a long drive (79 yards) at the beginning of the game that resulted in a 25-yard field goal, and another long drive (89 yards) in the second quarter that resulted in a Johnson TD.  All in all, could the defense have played better?  Yes, but they weren’t awful, and they weren’t the primary reason why they lost the game.

Conclusion: How much of a difference would Peyton Manning have made?  A huge difference.  In the Peyton Manning era, the Colts have only scored fewer than 13 points ten times, and two of those were in his first three games as a professional.  Against the Texans, the Manning-led Colts have never scored fewer than 19.  If Manning is in the game, maybe he doesn’t lose those fumbles; maybe the defense is more rested, and maybe it turns into a 19-13 win.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not blaming Collins for the loss – it is a team game.  What I am saying is that some were putting the loss on other issues – like the defense – not the absence of Manning.  I’m not so sure that I completely agree.  I think that if Manning is playing, this would have been a completely different game.

The bottom line is: we don’t know, nor will we ever know what could have happened in Week 1 down in Houston if Peyton Manning had been under center instead of Kerry Collins.  For all we know, he could have been knocked out of the game, and Curtis Painter would have been the QB, and the final score would have been exactly what it was in the first place.  But, one thing is for sure, Manning has been named MVP of the NFL four times, and maybe we’ll start to see that it should have been more.  That’s the power of one player in this game.